Shesa's Investment Blog

Welcome to the weekend updates Hope all the readers have/had a great thanksgiving! This week was shortened by Thanksgiving holidays. US stocks rallied near records. S&P 500 rose 2.2% to 6,849. Dow gained 2.7%; Nasdaq up 2.3% but down about 2% for November. Please note that last time Nasdaq lost -1.22% in November 2016. Hence, it was a reversal this year for Nasdaq. The S&P/Dow notched seventh straight monthly gain; Nasdaq first loss since March 2025. The focus was back to some of the AI stocks, but Nvidia's losing streak continues. The holiday sales are looking much better than expected, hence that's a very positive sign of the stock market 4.1% vs. 3.8% expected.  Here is the projected figure of Holiday U.S Sales Appox Shoppers: Record 186.9 million (Stores + Online).   Thanksgiving Day: $6.4B online (up 4.9–5.3% YoY, actual).   Black Friday: $11.7B–$11.8B online (up 8.3–9.1% YoY, actual); overall 4.1% growth (in-store + Online).   Cyber Monday: Projected ...

 Welcome to the Weekend Updates THANKS to all those who attended today's Q&A session., I hope it was helpful to get some insight into the market. Thus far, November has been a worst month for Nasdaq bucking the historical trend. Last week was very Volatile, ended down due to AI/tech valuation worries (e.g., Nvidia blowout earnings sparked sustainability fears). This week Dow: -1.9%, S&P 500: -2.0% , Nasdaq: -2.7%, 3rd straight weekly loss). Nasdaq has lost about 7% from its peak about a month ago. Friday investors got some relief came after New York Fed chair said, he favors lower rate that increased the chances of December rate cut odds to about 70%.  Last week, the U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September vs. expectations for 50,000 jobs. However, the unemployment rate showed unexpected weakness, rising to 4.4% from 4.3%. The new level is the highest level it’s been since October 2021. Nvidia’s strong earnings sparked early rally sending ...

Welcome to the weekend updates What a volatile week for the technology stocks! So far, we have seen a turbulent November . We saw  prolonged government shutdown (longest in history), delayed economic data, hurt consumer sentiment; AI/tech skepticism about AI stocks, rotation to healthcare/energy, lukewarm economic growth etc. Dow hit records mid-week on shutdown as investors took profit from AI stocks and rotated to other sectors. But  after the week's wild swings, Nasdaq ended down about 0.5% for the period. However, both the S&P 500 and the Dow held hair gain, up 0.1% and 0.3%, respectively.  So, why did  technology stocks got hammered? A Short seller showed  concern about the depreciation of the life of chips/GPU and said  that  AI stocks like Nvidia (NVDA) and Palantir (PLTR) are in a bubble with overinflated valuations, prompting his $1.1 billion short bets revealed in early November 2025 filings. This triggered a tech sell-off and backlash f...

Welcome to Shesa’s Blog U.S. Stock Market Update   I have a shorter version of my blog this month. The month of October started in a volatile manner but it picked up and Dow was up 2.6%, S&P 500 was up 2.3% and Nasdaq roared up 4.7%. We are seeing the similar trend in the month of November. Historically, November happens to be the best month for the stock market since 1950. As of date, Nasdaq is up 21.5% and S&P 500 is up 16.4% for the year. Meanwhile, the stock market had a volatile week on the fear of AI/tech valuation, longest government shutdown in U.S history . It’s expected to end tomorrow, let’s see if that happens. The ADP payroll was little better but layoffs in October (153,074) the highest in last 23 years mostly attributed to cost cutting due to AI impact and DOGE impact. The consumer sentiment was second lowest ever due to government shutdown and dull labor market situation. Despite strong Q3 earnings (82% beats, ~11% growth) the stock market has not be...