Shesa's Weekend Updates - 11|23|25

 Welcome to the Weekend Updates

THANKS to all those who attended today's Q&A session., I hope it was helpful to get some insight into the market. Thus far, November has been a worst month for Nasdaq bucking the historical trend. Last week was very Volatile, ended down due to AI/tech valuation worries (e.g., Nvidia blowout earnings sparked sustainability fears). This week Dow: -1.9%, S&P 500: -2.0% , Nasdaq: -2.7%, 3rd straight weekly loss). Nasdaq has lost about 7% from its peak about a month ago. Friday investors got some relief came after New York Fed chair said, he favors lower rate that increased the chances of December rate cut odds to about 70%. Last week, the U.S. economy added 119,000 jobs in September vs. expectations for 50,000 jobs. However, the unemployment rate showed unexpected weakness, rising to 4.4% from 4.3%. The new level is the highest level it’s been since October 2021.

Nvidia’s strong earnings sparked early rally sending Nasdaq over 500 points and had a wild swing of 1100 point!  
  • AI/tech valuation, Circular Financing, and Debt financing concerns and after the short sellers report causing negative sentiment. 
  • Most of the companies associated with OpenAI are getting hit badly viz. ORCL (-45%), MSFT, NVDA, CRWV, NBIS, TSM etc. etc.
  • Bitcoin  down from 126K to 84K min a matter of 6 weeks - triggering margin/liquidations
  • Job report was better than expected but Fed fear of not cutting rates in December.
  • Heavy call options selling and buying puts to hedge portfolio
  • Profit taking: Institutions expect their fat Thanksgiving bonus 
  • Some Year end selling of losers  
  • Continued hawkish statements by FED speaker
Economic News this week
TUE, 11/25: U.S. retail sales (delayed report)
TUE, 11/25: Producer price index (delayed report)
TUE, 11/25: Consumer confidence
TUE, 11/25: Pending home sales

My View on the on the current Market
One can very slowly start accumulating good stock that we have been tracking and love it
Better not to load with both hands and be patient to go slow and wait for the bounce. It's better to hedge the portfolio in such terrible market environment, practically if one has AI or growth stocks. 

This week will shortened week may be potentially volatile as many institutional investors will be off/holiday mode and there will be less volume, less liquidity. So, market may go either direction. It may help short-sellers due to lack of volume and liquidity but coincidentally some good stocks may bounce back as they have become very reasonably priced. We may see a good December moving to New Year, but too early to predict for next year. But it's always better to have some CASH in such volatile market environment. 

A List of stocks to watch
NVDA, GOOG, AVGO, TSLA, TEM, SOXL, TQQQ, META, AMD, CRWV, NBIS, AMZN, MSFT. As said in the Q&A today, NVDA is one of the cheapest stock, cheaper than AAPL, COST, WMT etc. despite its humongous growth and fantastic forecast. I wonder when people say NVDA is bubble!! One should see the fundamentals before talking. Which large company has 97% revenue growth, 103%(YoY) profit growth and spectacular forecast? 

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