Shesa's APRIL 2026 Investment Blog
By Shesa Nayak
Welcome to Shesa’s investment Blog!
U.S Stock Market Update
- U.S. payrolls rose by 178,000 in March, more than expected; unemployment at 4.3% vs. 59,000 estimated. This was a welcome news. Most of the jobs were contributed by healthcare 76K, followed by 44K - leisure and hospitality, 26K - construction.
- ISM Manufacturing PMI (March): 52.7vs. 52.5 forecast; expansion for 3rd month
- ADP Employment Change (March): +62K private jobs vs. 40K forecast
- Retail Sales (Feb): 0.6% MoM vs. 0.5%
Indexes | Close FRI 12/31/25 | Close FRI 3/20/26 | Change in 2026 | % Change in 2026 |
DOW | 48,063.99 | 46504.67 | -1,559.32 | -3.24 |
S&P 500 | 6,845.5 | 6582.69 | -262.81 | -3.84 |
NASDAQ | 23,241.99 | 21879.18 | -1,362.81 | -5.86 |
Russel 2000 | 2,481.91 | 2,530.04 | 48.13 | 1.94 |
SOX (Semi) | 8,083.13 | 7,833.39 | -249.74 | -3.09 |
Economic Report next week (April 6- 10, 2026)
Two very important numbers are expected next week on inflation due to higher oil and gas prices.
- Wednesday, 4/8: FED minutes. I don’t think this would be important.
- Thursday, 4/9: PCE report
- Friday, 4/10: CPI (Inflation report is expected on and I feel these numbers should go higher
What’s going on in the Stock market?
- DOW and Nasdaq went past the correction territory-10% but bounced back on Tuesday and Wednesday giving some relief to the investors
- All started since NOV 1st week: Short seller article, Circular financing, moving away from tech to Dow stocks and now US, Israel vs. Iran war
- Higher Oil and Gas prices about $112 a barrel went as high as $125
- Higher Inflation, expect more inflation next month due to rise in Oil & Gas prices. New CPI (Inflation report is expected on Friday, 4/10 and PCE report on Thursday, 4/9. I feel these numbers should go higher due to higher oil and gas prices.
- Higher unemployment 4.3% down from 4.4% but technology layoff may get worse in future
- Markets are taking: one Step forward 2-3 steps backward
A review of current situation and my strategy
I did conduct a WhatsApp pool to get some insight from my group member about their feeling about current market situation. Most of the members, 80% voted saying “it’s a chaotic market and better to be caution”. I totally agree with their opinion. One or two days of market bounce does mean that everything has changed. I still feel this market has lots of hurdles. Last week’s rally was mostly attributed to Trump’s tweet about war de-escalation, ADP job report, quarter ending rebalancing and short covering. Next couple of weeks may potentially provide better visibility and specially how the earnings season go. Whether earnings will bring back any momentum? See below about Q1 earnings.
Stock market always goes up in the long term. But my discussion will be based on current situation in the short-term. In other words, I am referring to around mid-term election time frame November or before. Honestly, nobody knows the future and in this market it makes it even harder to predict. But I will share some of my thoughts:
- In the short term market may remain highly volatile because of geopolitical situation, escalated gas price, higher inflation expectations. Though last week’s economic number on jobs looked good, I believe next week CPI/Inflation number may look ugly. Higher gas prices results in higher cost for the consumers due to higher transportation cost. These are highly inflationary. When inflation goes up, most of the goods and commodities become expensive, Federal reserve may remain on the sideline or may think of increasing interest rate which market does not like. In my view, it may remain a very volatile market in the near term.
There are some positives based on history. We will see whether history will repeat this time.
- When oil gains more than 40% in 20 trailing days S&P 500 has returned 16% in 6 months and 33.7% in one year. There were 6 such evens since 1985
- Geopolitical situations have always created good opportunities for long term investors
So, what should an investor do?
- It depends on our age, need for money (amount), Risk tolerance, job situation etc.
- This is probably not the time to jump in and buy with both hand. However, as I said market always goes up win the long term. So, if someone can take the volatility even if the market goes further down and not get emotional then buying slowly with proper due diligence may be advisable.
- It may make sense to pick up some value funds like VTV (See below), Oil ETF/stocks, dividend paying stable stocks. Buying oil stocks may be good but if there is any cease fire then the oil prices may see big drop. So, one has to be very careful. But some position on oil or oil ETF may be sensible. Because U.S, Israel has hit Iran oil fields and Iran in turn has hit in some of the oil fields in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE etc. So, I do not think oil price will crash from $112 to $60-70 in the new term. Hence, oil prices may remain elevated for a foreseeable future.
- Defense ETF: Just a couple of days ago Tump said to increase defense budget of about 40-50% from current $1T to around $1.5 trillion. That’s a huge increase. I guess buying some defense ETF makes perfect sense in the current environment. I may write more in my future blog.
- Q1 earnings & Technology Stocks: Technology stocks were being hammered for last few weeks before turning green last week. The Q1 tech earnings season will start week after next. During last earnings season, many tech stocks came with spectacular earnings but ultimately their share prices went down. So, will this be different this time? Frankly, I have no clue. If the stocks do not run up before earnings then there are some chances that good earnings may pop-up some stocks in the short term. If stocks go up before the earnings and earnings are not great then stocks may get hammered. So, making big bets before the earnings may not be a great idea in my view. Some patience may be needed here.
- Having good amount of CASH and jump in when situation gets batter by deciding fast
- Remember 90% of the long term stock return comes from less than 10% of the best days of the market. Hence staying on the sideline, or having too much of short position may not be a great idea as nobody can predict those best days!
- As we know, 2026 may not be a great year for Stock Market - 2nd Presidential year has terrible record. There were 9 bear markets in last 60 years since 1966
- Remember most of us are on the same boat. Investor who did not lose money this year should be lucky. It’s not fun to see the portfolio going down but being too much emotional may create panic situation
Stock Market TOP sectors for 2026 (as of 4/5/26)
Sector | Performance in 2026 in % |
Energy (TOP) | 32.52 |
Materials | 10.56 |
Utilities | 8.61 |
Consumer Staples | 7.1 |
Industrials | 5.62 |
Real Estate | 3.83 |
Information Technology | -7.55 |
Consumer Discretionary (WORST) | -9.87 |
You can click below link to view complete sectorial performances:
Source: https://www.barchart.com/stocks/sectors/rankings?timeFrame=Ytd
Now let me discuss two ETF for this month. One is for hedging the portfolio from the downturn and second on is one of the best ETF for long term investment irrespective of good or bad market.
2x Long VIX Futures ETF (UVIX)
Please note that I included this in my blog portfolio on 3/29, but said to provide more details later on. UVIX is the 2x Long VIX Futures ETF from Volatility Shares. It seeks daily 2x leveraged returns of the long VIX Futures Index. This is know a fear gauge. More the panic in the market UVIX sky rocket. When fear subsides, it falls like rock. Hence, please note that this is NOT a long-term investment, rather this is an insurance for protecting the portfolio from sever crash. This is a very short term tactical trade. If someone is busy and can’t track it and take quick action then better avoid it. This may be extremely rewarding or extremely risky based on how the market moves. A very small portion of the portfolio can be allocated to this as an insurance for protection of the portfolio. So, better be aware before adding it.
Risks
As I have said before, in the 2nd presidential year, market has not provided great returns on investment. There were about 6 bear markets in last 50 years. So, having some protection to the down side makes sense. This year, this leverage fund has provided 53% return year to date. But it does not mean this may keep going up. If market goes up then it’s extremely RISKY.
Strategy: Currently it’s trading at $8.29. I have/had added it at $10.86. I know it has lost since then but this is a great tool to have some protection from heavy market fluctuation or fear in the market. If one poses it then it’s important to trade quickly depending on the market situation add it or sell it or trim it. We should not keep it as a long term investment as it keeps losing its value over a period of time. We should just think it as an insurance from market downturn. If one can’t track it or can’t take the right decision then it could be extremely risky! One should have Avery small percentage in the portfolio particularly when market situation is getting worse. Probably a small portion like 2-5% just for protection. One can also look into UVXY.
Now let me talk about the other ETF.
Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF (VTV)
This Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) constitute of value stocks of large U.S. companies. The fund has ultra-low costs and efficiency with an expense ratio of just 0.03%, one of the cheapest ETFs available. Over decades, this minimal fee drag allows more of your returns to compound, giving it a clear edge over higher-cost funds. This fund uses value investing principles, buying quality companies at reasonable prices and historically rewarded long-term holders across full market cycles, especially in environments with elevated interest rates or valuation resets.The fund was launched in 2004.
Why do I look VTV?
As we know U.S. Stock market has become chaotic since last few months and more volatile after U.S - Iran war. The market is navigating through an uncertain environment. It’s difficult to predict what will go up or down on a given day. This fund has diversified exposure to stable, undervalued large-cap stocks e.g., Berkshire Hathaway, JPMorgan, ExxonMobil, JNJ, Walmart etc. It’s not a technology ETF rather it’s a value ETF with very good record and reasonably good return on investment (ROI).
It’s important to have some position beyond technology and growth stocks. Because it has lower volatility and downside protection. Historically, VTV has shown lower beta (0.76) meaning that it will lose less than the market. In such uncertain time, I think it’s better to have such stable funds. Once market gains positive momentum strategy may change. Having said that, as we age, it’s better to have some defensive fund as long term investment particularly when growth stocks face pressure.
Fund Performance
Despite bring a value fund, the return on investment (ROI) seems reasonably good. Let’s take a look at the ROI:
- YTD: 3.72%
- 1 Year: 16.12%
- 3 Years: 15.24%
- 5 Years: 16.8%
- 10 Years: 13.2%
It also has yield of 1.8% - 2%, higher than many broad market ETFs, which can provide steady income or be reinvested for compounding. It has proven track record for patient investors and as we see above it has also a good return on investment (ROI).
Strategy: VTV isn't designed to beat the market every year. However, growth ETFs have outperformed in recent AI-driven periods. But under the current market situation it’s a core or complementary holding alongside growth stocks. When growth gets slaughtered this ETF provides some steady return. If we see the fund return, even on the worst time viz. 2022 it was just down 2% when tech stocks were obliterated. Currently, it’s trading at $196.99. It can be invested like a mutual fund but ETFs are preferred because of its flexibility to buy/sell, no front end of backend load fees and low expense ratio.
Risks
Every equity carry risks in a down market so VTV is not immune to such risk but the investor won’t sweat even if market comes down hard.
My final thoughts
VTV is not a growth stock which usually I prefer. Having said that, market dynamics are changing and it’s better to have some good values funds which provides a decent return and protect from market collapse. As I have said a few times, the second presidential year is not great for the market. In addition, we see current Geopolitical situation. So, having VTV as part of the portfolio makes perfect sense to me in the current market environment.
Shesa’s Blog Portfolio (As of APRIL 5, 2026)
Equity | Suggested Price | Current Price | Suggested Date | % Change | My View (see disclaimer) |
STOCK (All prices are in USD) | |||||
12.9 | 255.92 | 1/25/13 | 1884% | HOLD | |
47 | 574.46 | 11/13/13 | 1122% | Buy on Dip | |
77.18 | 493.44 | 12/12/13 | 539% | HOLD | |
15.58 | 209.77 | 4/12/14 | 1246% | HOLD | |
13.48 | 118.25 | 11/25/18 | 777% | HOLD | |
54.59 | 188.67 | 5/25/20 | 246% | HOLD | |
23.9 | 177.39 | 2/13/22 | 642% | Buy on Dip | |
290.25 | 360.59 | 5/1/22 | 24% | Accumulate - Long term | |
14.24 | 14.96 | 7/6/25 | 5% | HOLD | |
15.66 | 52.75 | 4/6/23 | 237% | HOLD (Trimmed) | |
123.25 | 294.46 | 5/21/23 | 139% | HOLD | |
20.49 | 148.46 | 11/19/23 | 625% | HOLD | |
10.48 | 5.27 | 4/28/24 | -50% | SOLD | |
51.92 | 40.6 | 8/11/24 | -22% | HOLD (Trimmed) | |
76.16 | 218.44 | 11/11/24 | 187% | Buy on Dip | |
5.32 | 3.11 | 1/2/25 | -42% | HOLD (Trimmed) | |
37.46 | 29.30 | 2/18/25 | -22% | HOLD | |
203.64 | 314.55 | 4/5/25 | 54% | HOLD | |
11.18 | 24.56 | 6/15/25 | 120% | HOLD - Earnings on 4/8 | |
94.4 | 68.9 | 7/6/25 | -27% | HOLD (Trimmed) | |
104.14 | 82.24 | 8/3/25 | -21% | HOLD (Trimmed) | |
65.47 | 108.82 | 9/7/25 | 66% | Trimmed - Buy on Dip | |
53.95 | 19.14 | 10/12/25 | -65% | HOLD | |
71.56 | 47.39 | 11/9/25 | -34% | HOLD (Trimmed) | |
214.16 | 217.5 | 1/1/26 | 2% | HOLD | |
455.46 | 429.41 | 2/8/26 | -6% | Accumulate slowly | |
85.27 | 65.79 | 3/1/26 | -23% | Accumulate slowly | |
10.86 | 10.86 | 3/29/26 | 0% | New - For Hedging (Short Term) | |
196.99 | 196.99 | 4/4/26 | 0% | New Addition | |
MUTUAL FUND | |||||
59.45 | 123.5 | 12/20/14 | 108% | HOLD | |
9.05 | 17.47 | 1/15/16 | 93% | HOLD | |
Equity Sold since my Last Blog
ENVX
Here is my YouTube channel link: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCt7oLVUMG3NkJUzAVUzl4Tg
Disclaimer:This blog is meant to provide my opinion only. The information provided is to the best of my knowledge but may not be accurate. I do NOT provide any professional recommendation to buy/sell any stock, ETF, mutual fund, or any other security(s). As an investor, it’s your hard-earned money and you decide what is best for you. The above are merely my own opinions on what I do. Please contact a professional money manager to buy/sell any security. I do not charge any fees or commission by writing the blog except anything from Google AdSense. I have position(s) on whatever security I put on my blog portfolio and avoid including any security that I do not own or follow. Anyone buying or selling the equities mentioned here must do at their own risk.
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