Shesa's Weekend Stock Market Updates - 9|20|26

Welcome to my weekend Updates

Key Takeaway for last week: The Fed delivered its first rate hike in over 3 years and left the door open for more. Markets recovered better than expected on Thursday, but higher rates, sticky oil prices, and September seasonality still call for caution.  

Last week U.S. equities finished mixed in a volatile session. Stocks sold off sharply after the Federal Reserve’s rate decision on Wednesday, then recovered strongly on Thursday as oil prices eased and yields pulled back. Friday was quieter as the 10-year yield moved back slightly below 5%. Overall sentiment remained cautious despite Thursday’s rebound. Technology led the recovery while Energy and Financials lagged. The Nasdaq managed a modest weekly gain, while the Dow and Russell 2000 lagged. Let's take a look at the Indices.

  • S&P 500 declined -0.1% to close at 7,650.50 (YTD: +11.8%)
  • Nasdaq rose +0.7% to close at 26,522.55 (YTD: +14.1%)
  • Dow Jones declined -1.7% to close at 51,682.64 (YTD: +7.5%)
  • Russell 2000 declined -1.5% to close at 2,860.40 (YTD: +15.2%)

Economic Report last week

The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate by 0.25% to a target range of 3.75%–4.00% in a unanimous 12–0 vote, the first hike since July 2023. Officials noted that inflation remains elevated and signaled that another increase later this year is possible.

August Retail Sales rose a strong +1.2% (well above the +0.8% expectation), showing continued consumer resilience.

Economic Report this week

No major high-impact U.S. data releases are scheduled. Attention will stay on Trump and Jinping meeting, Oil prices, Treasury yields, and any comments from Fed officials.

Other news

  • President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet on this week on September 24. This could be very important.
  • Warren Buffett stepped down as Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway (he had already handed the CEO role to Greg Abel earlier this year). He becomes Chairman Emeritus, and his son Howard Buffett takes over as Chairman.
  • Tesla Semi high-volume production continues; the factory event is set for September 24 (timing may be affected by the Trump-Xi meeting).

Stocks to watch

TSLA, NVDA, DELL, MU, SPCX, NBIS, MP, MRNA, UVXY, XLE

Note: These are not recommendations — just a watch list.

Going forward

The Fed’s rate hike and the possibility of further tightening have removed one major uncertainty but introduced a higher-for-longer rates backdrop. Combined with still-elevated oil prices and the historically weak seasonal pattern of September (especially in midterm election years), I expect volatility to remain elevated.

The important event to watch is the upcoming meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping on September 24. Any signals on trade, tariffs, or broader geopolitical tensions could move markets. The outcome may move many AI-related stocks.

I continue to keep some cash on the sidelines and remain highly selective with any new investments. I will be watching oil prices, Treasury yields, Fed commentary, and developments around the Trump-Xi meeting closely next week.

Have a good evening!

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